| Author |
Message |
keith andrews (24.237.149.30)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, July 19, 2002 - 6:02 pm: | |
Any thoughts on the major contributors to the recent decline in coach prices (assuming there has been one). Is the stock market the biggest factor, the overall economy, fuel prices, unusual numbers of buses being retired (glut), or something else.
Are pollution standards retiring early many of the older buses with DDs.
I'm looking for a coach, ok bus but it seems like
I need to really take my time and think about some
issues that I might not have, had I not been reading this forum.
Anybody think that within the next two or three years or so owning a bus that is powered by a 60 series DD versus a 71 or 92 could be a big deal because of pollution.
I want a solar powered bus that sounds like a diesel and has enough juice to climb that long hill coming out of homer at 55 ( hey thats the speed limit).
By the way if the price of used buses is tied to the Dow and Nasdaq looks like the bids on Ebay will be less by next tuesday.
Enjoy the Ride
Kilo Alpha |
Ross Carlisle (Ross) (216.107.195.97)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, July 19, 2002 - 7:28 pm: | |
"By the way if the price of used buses is tied to the Dow and Nasdaq looks like the bids on Ebay will be less by next tuesday. "
Whats going on next tuesday?
The dow and nasdaq closed at an all time low today. My broker told me that it closed lower than the September low.
I think the bus price thing has something to do with the fact that there are an abundance of used buses on the market. IE: NJ Transit.
Ross |
Henry R. Bergman, Jr. (Henryofcj) (63.224.197.10)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, July 19, 2002 - 7:49 pm: | |
Wow guys, wish I had a broker. Sometimes I feel outa my league here. He, he, he! Henry |
jmaxwell (66.42.92.14)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Saturday, July 20, 2002 - 1:27 am: | |
Yes, Henry, I too feel that way on here sometimes, know what u mean. Nobody really needed a broker tdy to tell them about the market; all u had to do was step out your door about 8 mins. before the closing bell and you could hear the wailing and knashing of teeth all the way back to NY, and I live in CA. But I don't really think the DOW or Nasdaq has anything to do with the price of used buses. The general state of the economy is not good, contrary to the bs that Wash. feeds us on a daily basis, there is a glut of old, used, wore out buses, and an EPA scare about DD that nobody seems to be able to positively identify, but they have heard!? Prices do seem to be in a steady decline for used buses and it is really noticeable in the higher end used market. Charter and leasing companies are taking a bath and my thoughts are that it is because the general public (the silent millions) travel shorter distances and less frequently simply because there expendable income ain't what it was a couple of years ago in the good ole days. |
FAST FRED (65.58.187.139)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Saturday, July 20, 2002 - 5:34 am: | |
The media which is as ususal a partisan for the left is attempting to confuse the public that the stock market IS the economy.
AS the real economy did NOT even suffer a recession ( 2 not just 1 quarter of negative growth is the definition), and was growing at 6+% in the first quarter.
You can be sure congress will continue to dredge up some morons that refused to diversify and rode a single stock , all the way down.
All you are watching is the departure of "Irational Exuberance" folks will no longer pay a PE(Price /Ernings ratio) of 100+ for a stock with a great "story " but NO earnings.
The usual PE runs from 6 in the bottom of a recession , to about 20 at the top.
AFTER Friday PE's are still too high for the TOP of a market , so there should be more down to come , but it will be rigged to happen before Nov, the election.
The PE's are also based on earnings numbers that will now include expenses like stock options , so most Co earnings have been misstated about 25% higher than they will be.The lowering of expectations is ALL this correction is about.
Contrary to our laws the Federal Reserve is again tampering with the market,
But not much of our laws matter any more , congress spent 150 BILLION over the "Legal " limits.
Thats 12X more than all the "bad ' CEO's did together.
Do you see any action to arrest congress?
Every single buracracy "looses" 10 to 20% of their budgets , "Unacountable" , and has since I was born ,do you see any handcufs?
Or only raises for a well done job.
The used coach prices crashed due to oversupply, as did the truck marketplace.
The desire for 45 coaches in the secondary "beer & casino " charter market ment that those companys did not bid for the great quantity of NJ stuff, which caused a glut in the RV market.
As purchasing votes is what politicos DO for a living , you can be sure that other fleets will be scrapped "early', so the bargan in coach shells will continue.
Dont worry about DD parts or laws against 2 strokes . The Geezer set was thru skool before the current situation ( HS grads with 5th grade reading skills)so the politicos are terrified of these folks that can still read & write.
Exempting , "grandfathering" ect will always be done for folks that can create noise.
Build away!
FAST FRED |
Doug Dickinson (Dougd470) (206.71.103.132)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Saturday, July 20, 2002 - 10:29 am: | |
This discussion is getting too political! In an attempt to steer it back again - what are the opinions about prices in he next few months. I noticed ABC increased the asking price of the NJT MC9s by $1000. Is the supply drying up or are we seeing a company testing the price boundary. What are people really paying for thes coaches? What about other suppliers - I notice some higher asking prices creeping out. |
Henry R. Bergman, Jr. (Henryofcj) (63.224.197.10)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Saturday, July 20, 2002 - 4:45 pm: | |
On a directly related note regarding the possible decline of used coach prices, I found it to be true regarding ex schoolies retired from service from various California school districts.
However, in this case, the driving force is compliance with the new draconian Califorian emissions requirement along with a truly nasty 3-county ex school bus scraping policy.
Seems perfectly good recently inspected/certified Crown school buses (along with others) are being placed out of active service one day and driven to the scrap yard for destruction the next.
Overall, this has resulted in a frenzy of school districts removing from service many schoolies, thus driving the surplus purchase price downward.
I bought my 1974 Crown Super Coach 40 foot 10-wheeler for a $song$, even though the district who owned her probably spent $20 grand going though the entire bus.
She (the bus) has less than 1500 total road miles on a year 2000 California Highway Patrol school bus inspection certificate. The Crown is in absolutely mint condition.
Overall it looks very bright in the near future for individuals who have always dreamed of buying a surplus coach for conversion dreams, but always believed the buses were priced beyond their means.
Fred is probably correct in his analysis of politicial events relating/not relating to surplus coach values. Right now may be the moment we have all been looking for. Buy now? Thanks. |
Gary Stadler (Boogiethecat) (68.7.217.217)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Sunday, July 21, 2002 - 1:22 pm: | |
But the problem here is that these busses are being SCRAPPED, not resold...in fact the junkyards have to sign a "scrap warranty" that guarantees they will shred 'em (first hand experience here, just 3 weeks ago I watched two Gilligs leaving the yard for the shredder!!) The only possible loophole is to sell them outside of the USA to a foreign country, otherwise "by law" they've gotta be shredded!! So basically it will drive the prices UP not down, because these busses will disappear in a short time leaving the few we converters have bought as the only ones left... |
johnwood (206.252.250.5)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Sunday, July 21, 2002 - 3:57 pm: | |
From the land of "conservation" and activisim comes the wasteful practice of scrapping out a perfectly useful school bus.
Surely a lot of school districts elsewhere in the country that do not have the deep pockets of S. CA school districts and would love to have these units for everyday use. Probably they (Califonian) feel it "best" for the "mothergaia earth" if they destroy the gas guzzling, polluting monsters! Too bad they do not take into account the energy it took to build them and their replacements. |
Gary Stadler (Boogiethecat) (68.7.217.217)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Sunday, July 21, 2002 - 11:09 pm: | |
Pretty sick huh! And the way Ca. gets the school districts to do this is to pay a hefty percentage of a new replacement bus if they junk the old one. Nothin' like conserving our resources, taxes, and sanity...
Gary |
Henry R. Bergman, Jr. (Henryofcj) (63.224.197.10)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, July 23, 2002 - 2:28 pm: | |
Gary is absolutely correct. In LA, Orange and San Bernadino counties these perfectly good schoolies are being SCRAPPED!! Very sad situation. I feel it is a 90% politicial situation not relating to logic or even polution control.
And.....what makes it even worse is that they are being replaced with cyrogenic (SP?) compressed natural gas school buses which still (!!!) have a tendency of catching fire and exploding. Not all, but a few.
Seems a few of these school districts facing having their still valuable Crowns and Gilligs destroyed are swapping them "out of district" to other school districts for other considerations or old junker buses.
Then these other non-impacted districts are either using the buses or selling them surplus to the public. As more schoolies become available, the price may come down.
Then the older schoolies get crunched and not $25000 Crowns or Gilligs. Gary was down there I think awhile ago stocking up on priceless Crown parts and he talked to the scrap yard guy.
Gary, could you give us a short briefing on what is going on down there? You were there. Do you think this situation regarding schoolies in parts of Commiefornia (California) will reflect future events/availability regarding road coaches? Thanks....and CROWNS FOREVER!! |
Gary Stadler (Boogiethecat) (68.7.217.217)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, July 23, 2002 - 4:15 pm: | |
I already did give a short briefing in a previous post when I reported on the junkyard. The photo I posted showed all the busses there, each destined for the shredder, each much nicer and more recent than mine. More arriving each week.
The usual thing that happens with situations like this is that initially there is a "glut" and prices are cheap, then later when they're all been shredded and turned into new yuppie cars and there's none left, the prices go sky high. But who knows. I stay out of politics, and just glean what trimmings I can from the mess they make...
But discussing it won't change anything. For me it's "do the work" and enjoy the fruits. Right now it's time for a cold drink and back to finishing my conversion...
Cheers
Gary |
Buswarrior (Buswarrior) (64.229.208.54)
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, July 26, 2002 - 2:55 am: | |
Hello all.
The glut of used buses has to do with the unprecedented business environment of the bus industry, and it hasn't hit all of a sudden, it's been creeping up on the industry.
Three major influences since 1986 have been:
1) legal coach sizes increasing, first in width from 96" to 102", and then length from 40' to 45'.
2) advent of 4 stroke electronic powerplants, which gave the entire transportation industry the miracle of more power with less fuel.
3) Manufacturers and Leasing comapanies willing to give 2nd tier companies economical access to new coaches.
The MC9's have the distinction of being the orphan children, being caught in the demographic crossfire. (and now the early 102's with 2 stroke motors.) Excellent coaches, lots of them out there, with few wanting them for commercial service.
Historically, a 2nd tier company should have been buying the '9s that the 1st tier companies were selling off.
But, a leasing company enticed the 2nd tier to lease a brand new bus, just like the big boys. In the past, these types of risks were not taken by the leasing companies, and perhaps the 2nd tier didn't have the courage to ask! (The same thing was happening in the trucking side of the industry at the same time.)
Add in that the 1st tier companies were making a historical shift in fleet rotation decisions: tending to shed their 96" coaches a little early, their 40' coaches a little early and then shed their 2 strokes a little early to tap into the combined miracle of bigger, more powerful, more fuel efficient coaches, and you have a recipe for falling asset values. Lots of coaches going onto the used market earlier than they "should" and the usual buyers not buying, because they already leased the same brand new equipment as the 1st tier carriers.
Good for us busnuts, but not good for the book value of the fleet near you. And some of the 2nd tier guys weren't smart enough to know that they couldn't afford that big new bus's payments at their bargain basement charter rates, if things cooled down. Witness the bankruptcies of 2nd tier carriers near you, not to mention the odd 1st tier one. Funny how cash in the pocket doesn't necessarily mean your rich?
Not unlike the excessive credit available to each of us today versus the credit available to a family in, oh say, 1955. Just because someone will let you sign the deal, and give you the loan, doesn't mean it's good for you.....
happy coaching!
buswarrior |
|